SCRIPT OF EXPERIMENT INSTRUCTIONS FOR HYPOTHESIS EXTRACTION (MODE TESTING) EXPERIMENT
Italicized text was read aloud, except that enclosed in brackets []. Regular text appeared on the computer screen and was read aloud.
[Introduce self and helpers.]
THE INSTRUCTIONS SCREEN
This screen presents the instructions for the experiment in which you agreed to participate. Follow the instructions on the screen as I read them to you. While I read these instructions, DO NOT CLICK ON ANY BUTTONS unless told to do so.
On my command, click on the "PAGE DOWN" button at the bottom of the instructions page to go to the following page of instructions. Similarly, clicking on the "PAGE UP" button will take you to the previous page of instructions. To close the instructions screen, click on the "QUIT" button. During the experiment you may reopen the instructions screen by clicking on the "INSTRUCTIONS" button at the top of the main screen. The instructions screen will open to the last page you visited.
Click page down now.
WELCOME
This is an experiment about economic decision making. If you follow the instructions carefully you might earn a considerable amount of money. This money will be paid at the end of the experiment in private and in cash.
Wave cash.
It is important that during the experiment you remain SILENT. If you have any questions, or need assistance of any kind, RAISE YOUR HAND. DO NOT SPEAK. One of the experiment administrators will come to you and you may whisper your question to him. If you talk, laugh, exclaim out loud, etc., you will be asked to leave and you will not be paid. We expect and appreciate your cooperation.
This experiment will be conducted in two stages. In Stage I, you and all other participants in this room will each make a number of decisions. Based on your choices and the choices of the other participants, you will earn TOKENS. In Stage II, you will have the opportunity to receive DOLLARS based on the number of TOKENS you earned in Stage I. We describe Stage II first, so you can better understand how the number of TOKENS that you earn in Stage I affect the number of DOLLARS that you receive at the end of the experiment.
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DESCRIPTION OF STAGE II
At the beginning of Stage II, you will have earned between 0 and 100 TOKENS for each decision that you made in Stage I. The total number of DOLLARS that you receive at the end of the experiment will depend partly on the number of TOKENS earned in Stage I and partly on chance.
Chance enters into the experiment in Stage II, because you will then be asked to roll three ten sided dice, once for each decision. Since there are 24 decisions in Stage I, you will roll the dice 24 times. By comparing the number of TOKENS that you earned for each decision and the corresponding roll of dice, we compute the amount of DOLLARS earned by you.
Specifically, three ten sided dice determine a three digit number on each roll. The first die will count tens, the second die will count ones, and the third die will count tenths. For example, if you rolled 5, 4, and 8, the number would be 54.8. All the possible numbers from 00.0 to 99.9 are equally likely. Once again, since there are 24 decisions in Stage I, the rolls of the dice will designate 24 three-digit numbers in Stage II.
By comparing the three-digit number from the dice-roll to the number of TOKENS for each decision, we determine how many DOLLARS you receive. If the number of TOKENS for a decision is GREATER THAN the corresponding number, then you receive $2.00 for that decision. If the number of TOKENS is LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO the corresponding number, then you get $0 for that decision.
For example, if you earn 80 TOKENS for your seventh decision, and on the seventh roll your number was 47.6 in Stage II, since 80 is GREATER THAN 47.6, you would receive $2.00 for that decision. This comparison is repeated 24 times to compute the total number of dollars you receive.
Note that if you earn 80 TOKENS for a decision, you have an 80% chance of winning the $2.00 prize and if you earn 20 TOKENS for a decision you have a 20% chance of winning the $2.00 prize. The more TOKENS you earn, the greater will be your chance of winning the $2.00 prize for any given decision.
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STAGE I
During Stage I, you and all other participants will make 24 decisions. For each decision, you will be given a matrix consisting of nine numbers arranged in three rows and three columns as shown here.
Point to the screen.
The rows indicate your possible choices, and the columns indicate the possible choices of all other participants in this room. The numbers in the matrices, along with your choices and the choices of all other participants in this session, determine your TOKEN earnings for each decision.
Each participant will receive the same 24 matrices and will be asked to make decisions based on the same amount of information. Each of the 24 matrices will differ only by the nine numbers. Your decision on a matrix will be compared to the decisions of the other participants on that same matrix. Depending on your decision and those of all the other participants, you will earn TOKENS for each matrix.
The TOKENS will be determined as follows: Let N be the total number of other participants in the room. Each of the other participants in the room chooses either A, B or C for this matrix. Let (nA, nB, nC) denote the numbers of other participants in this session who chose A, B, and C respectively for this matrix. If you chose row A, then using row A of the above Matrix, you would score 0 points for each of the nA participants, 99 points for each of the nB participants, and 25 points for each of the nC participants. Your TOKEN EARNINGS for this decision would be your average point score:
(0 nA + 99 nB + 25 nC) / N.
Similarly, if you chose row B, then your token earnings would be:
(68 nA + 58 nB + 25 nC) / N;
and if you chose row C, then your token earnings would be:
(34 nA + 8 nB + 68 nC) / N.
We will now work through a numerical example of how your token earnings will be affected by your choices and the choices of all other participants.
Please look at the overhead as I am working the numerical example.
Let us assume there are 20 other people in the room. Assume 10 of the other people chose A, 7 chose B, and 3 chose C. Then row A would give you (0 * 10 + 99 * 7 + 25 *3) / 20 = 38.4 TOKENS, row B would give you (68 * 10 + 58 * 7 + 25 *3) / 20 = 58.05 TOKENS, and row C would give you (34 * 10 + 8 * 7 + 68 * 3) / 20 = 30 TOKENS. Row B would give you the highest payoff and hence this is the row the computer will choose for you and highlight in pink.
You will now verify these results using the computer interface available to you. Exit the Instructions page by clicking on QUIT.
After you quit the Instructions page, the screen should be blue and have "Participant" and your assigned number on top.
The button on the right of the screen with the word "DEMO" on it is stands for the Demo matrix you will be using right now. During the actual experiment, there will be 24 such buttons on the right of the screen, where the demo button is now, each labeled by a number corresponding to a different matrix. Click on DEMO now to see the matrix that is now displayed on the overhead. The row labels A, B, and C correspond to your three possible choices whereas the column labels A, B, and C correspond to the possible choices of others.
The bottom panel contains, from left to right, three white boxes labeled A, B, C, one pale blue box labeled "Total is," an orange button with the word "CALCULATOR" inside, and a yellow box labeled "clock", in that order.
The three white boxes are where you will enter your hypotheses for the numbers of other participants making each choice. To enter a number, use your mouse to click on a white box then enter a number in it using the number keys in the top row of your keyboard in front of you. To change a number in a box, click on the box and use the Back-Space key to delete the previous number before entering a new one. You may move from one white box to another by clicking on the Tab button to move right and Shift-Tab to move left. Or you may simply use the mouse to move from one box to the next by clicking on the box you wish to enter a number in. Each time you enter or change a number in a white box, the total of the three numbers is computed and displayed in the adjacent pale blue box.
On the top of your screen appear the words "INSTRUCTIONS" and "RECORD." Anytime during today's experiment you will be able to review the instructions by clicking on "INSTRUCTIONS." The "RECORD" button will be used at the end of the experiment to display your token payoffs.
Enter the numbers 10, 7, and 3 in the corresponding hypothesis boxes.
[ Repeat, then pause]
Notice that the number in the pale blue box is 20, the total number of other participants.
When you click on CALCULATOR, the computer will calculate your hypothetical token earnings for each row. Click on CALCULATOR now.
[Pause. Administrators will go around making sure everyone is keeping up]
Three numbers will appear to the right of the matrix under the word Payoff, indicating your hypothetical token earnings for each of the possible choices. The numbers to the right of the matrix are 38.4, 58.05, and 30, corresponding to your payoffs for each row exactly as we computed by hand.
[Point to the board]
Directly under the matrix, following the word "Percent" is the percentage of the total number of other participants that you have allocated hypothetically to each possible choice. The numbers below the matrix are 50, 35, and 15, corresponding to 50% of other participants choosing A, 35% choosing B, and 15% choosing C. The middle row should be pink, being the row which would give you the highest payoff.
Notice that once you entered a guess and clicked on calculator, the DEMO button turned green. This indicates that you have made a decision for that matrix. Also, on the bottom of the screen it should now say "0 Matrices remaining." These two devices will prove very important later when you have more than one matrix, to remind you how many decisions you have left and for which matrices.
Instead of entering 10, 7, and 3, you may wish to enter the corresponding percentages. Change your numbers in the white boxes to 50, 35, and 15, which are the percentage terms for 10, 7, and 3.
[Repeat, then pause to give them time to change hypotheses]
Click on CALCULATOR now.
[Pause]
Notice that the payoffs to the right of the matrix are still 38.4, 58.05, and 30. Hence, only the percentages are relevant for the determination of payoffs.
Go back to INSTRUCTIONS by clicking on the Instructions button.
Click page down now.
MAKING A DECISION
Since you want to earn the maximum number of TOKENS possible, if you knew exactly what the other participants were going to do for a given matrix, you would enter the number of participants choosing A, B, or C into the corresponding boxes and hit the CALCULATOR button. Based on that decision, the row with the largest payoff is selected and colored pink.
Since you do not know for sure what the other participants will do, you should enter your best guess about the number or percentage of participants making each choice (A, B, or C). Given your hypothesis, the computer will choose the row that would earn you the most TOKENS. Note that only the percentage of other participants making each choice is important. The actual number of participants making each choice does not matter. Since only the percentages matter, your three numbers need not add up to the total number of other participants in the room.
Once you enter your hypothesis, click on the CALCULATOR button. The computer will then conveniently find the best choice (A, B, or C) for you and color that row pink.
Once you made a decision (i.e. entered your best guess and clicked on CALCULATOR) the Matrix Button corresponding to that matrix will change color to green. This will remind you which of the 24 matrices you have made choices for and for which you MUST still make a choice.
Again exit the instructions and click on the demo button.
You will now be receiving some practice exercises to better familiarize you with the process of making hypothetical calculations. Once you are done with the quiz sit back and wait. An experiment administrator will come by to check your answers. If you are unclear on a question, raise your hand but do not speak. An experiment administrator will be with you shortly.
(Once done with the quiz):
In the main part of the experiment you will have to make 24 decisions like the example we just went through. You will have a total of 36 minutes which comes to 1½ minutes for each decision. To give you some practice in making decisions in the allotted time, we will now have a 4½ -minute timed practice session. You will have 4½ minutes to make hypothetical calculations on 3 matrices. A "60 Seconds Warning" will appear when only a minute remains for you to make decisions.
To select a Matrix, click on the corresponding number in the Active Matrix bar on the right side of the screen where the Demo button is now. The corresponding matrix will appear and the letters in the Active Matrix button you clicked will be red as long as you are visiting that matrix. You may return to matrices that you previously selected. When you do this, the screen will re-appear exactly as you left it.
Enter "666" in the password box on top of your screen. Then click on the PRACTICE button. Begin as soon as the 3 active matrix buttons appear to the right of the screen. A matrix will appear only after you click on a matrix button.
Return to INSTRUCTIONS by clicking on the INSTRUCTIONS button at the top of your screen.
Click Page Down Now.
BEGINNING STAGE I
This concludes the instruction phase.
Every participant in this room will be presented with 24 Matrices just like the examples we went through. Each Matrix will also be displayed at the front of the room. Your screen will be blank until you click on one of the Matrix buttons on the right side of the main screen.
To select a Matrix, click on the corresponding number in the Matrix bar. The corresponding matrix will appear and the letters in the Matrix button you clicked will be red as long as you are visiting that matrix. You may return to matrices that you previously selected in order to review or revise your choices. When you do this, the screen will re-appear exactly as you left it.
You must make a choice for each Matrix listed in the Active Matrix bar. Failure to make a choice for each Matrix will mean forfeiture of all your TOKENS for all the Matrices. If a Matrix button has not turned bright green, then you have not yet made a choice for that matrix. The message at the bottom of the screen tells you the number of matrices for which you have not made a choice, and the Matrix numbers that are still in white tell you which matrices you have left blank.
The experiment will take 36 minutes. A red warning-- "60 seconds remaining"-- will appear when there are 60 seconds left.
Each Matrix will be treated completely separately. That is, your TOKENS earned for a specific Matrix will depend on your choice and the choices of all other participants for that Matrix by itself. There is absolutely no linkage between different Matrices.
More tokens earned for a decision signify a greater chance of getting the $2.00 payoff for that decision. You have 24 opportunities to get the $2.00 payoff and the total will be paid to you at the end of the experiment.
Just before the main experiment starts, your screen will be blank except for the words "WAIT TO PROCEED". You may begin as soon as your screen displays the Matrix Buttons. A matrix will appear only after you click on a matrix button.
You may proceed without further signals from me until you have made your 24 decisions. After that, you may review the Instructions or continue to review your choices. However, you may not talk nor stand up.
Click page down now.
SUMMARY
To Select A Matrix: click on a button in the Active Matrix bar. If a button is white, you still need to make a decision for that Matrix. Once you make a decision the matrix button for that matrix will turn green. You must make a decision for each Matrix to earn any TOKENS.
To Make A Decision: click inside a white box under the Matrix, use the keyboard to enter a number. If there is already a number in that white box and you wish to change it, use the Back-Space key to delete the current number, than enter a new one. Once the white boxes contain your hypothesis, click on CALCULATOR.
To Review Instructions: click on INSTRUCTIONS.
STOP! DO NOT PAGE DOWN UNTIL TOLD TO DO SO.
Quit the instructions page again.
Enter "777" in the password box on top of your screen.
[Repeat]
Then click on the NEXT STAGE button. Once the buttons appear to the right of your screen you may begin by clicking on any of the Matrix buttons.
After phase I is over:
You are now looking at the record screen. The first column displays numbers from 1 to 24 corresponding to the 24 different matrices you made decisions for. The second column has your best row for each matrix given your guess. The next column has your token earnings for that game given the other participants' choices. The next three columns have the number of other participants making each choice.
Make sure "777" is in the password box on top of your screen. Then click on the NEXT STAGE button.
You will see three dice. These dice are as described in the INSTRUCTIONS earlier. Namely, you will roll these dice 24 times, once for each game. To the right of the dice you will see four column titles "Game", "TOKENS", "Roll", and "Pay". The first column has numbers from 1 to 24 corresponding to the 24 matrices. The second column has your token earnings for each of the matrices. The third column will have the dice rolls for each matrix and will be updated each time you roll the dice. The last row will indicate every matrix for which you won $2, i.e., your TOKENS earned exceed your dice roll for that matrix. At the bottom of the dice screen you will see the label "Total pay:". To the right of Total pay will be your total earnings for the experiment. These will be updated after each dice roll until you are done with all 24 dice rolls. Again, for each game in which your token earnings exceed the dice roll, you will win $2.00.
[Pass out receipts]
Once you rolled the dice 24 times, use a pencil to write your payoffs down on the receipt slip, which we will be passing around momentarily. Then quit the dice screen. Make sure you sign the receipt and fill out the relevant information.
When you are done sit back and wait for further instructions.
(Then, when everyone is done):
You will now be called one by one to receive your payments. Your payments will be in a closed envelope. Bring the receipt on which you have written down your payoffs with you when are called to receive your payments. You will then leave the room once you receive your payment.